Been exploring using ChatGPT as a tool; it's remarkably good at some things! Also greatly hampered by it's willingness to completely make things up and present them with complete authority. They really need to incorporate conveying confidence intervals in the answers.

@nelson I wonder if it even knows what the confidence interval is for a particular answer.

@jkottke @nelson It certainly knows at a verbal level (the front end is explicitly sampling from distributions) but I think you would have to get pretty clever with ensembles or something to even halfway do the kind of semantic error bars that a reasonable person would want.

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@jkottke @nelson Cf. this, which is extremely silly but also, I have to admit, a little bit intriguing: arxiv.org/abs/2303.17071

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